Global solar additions could reach 655GWdc in 2024

BNEF estimates that China will account for 54.7% of global solar PV capacity additions in 2024. Image: RWE.

The world could install up to 655GWdc of solar PV capacity this year, up from about 444GWdc in 2023, according to BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) 1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook.

The report offered multiple scenario about the installed global solar PV capacity, with the conservative and optimistic forecasts being 520GWdc and 655GWdc respectively. In the mid-scenario forecast for global PV installations, the world will install 574GWdc.

Installed capacity around the world

China will continue to dominate the installed capacity in 2024 (313.7GWdc), accounting for 54.7% of global solar PV capacity additions this year. China will be followed by the US (40.6GWdc), India (18.1GWdc), Brazil (17GWdc) and Germany (16.5GWdc).

Three European countries will ramp up their installed solar PV additions this year, including Spain (7.54GWdc), the Netherlands (5.52GWdc) and Italy (5.25GWdc). The remaining countries in the top ten list of installed solar PV additions are Japan (5.47GWdc) and South Africa (4.29GWdc).

The study also examined European countries‘ cumulative solar PV capacity by 2030. Germany will (79.3GW). France (47.6GW), Poland (46.3GW) and the Netherlands (45.7GW) will also be the other countries with significant installed solar PV capacity by 2030.

The global solar PV industry had impressive growth in 2023, increasing the installed capacity from 252GWdc in 2022, representing a 76.2% year-on-year growth. China added 268GWdc or 216.9ac last year, 60.4% of the global installed capacity. The US added 35.2GWdc last year, followed by Brazil (16.9GWdc), Germany (14.1GWdc) and India (13.6GWdc).

Polysilicon prices fall 74%

The study also examined polysilicon price, as the average price of polysilicon fell by 74% over 2023 to as low as US$8.1 per kilogram in the last week of 2023.

In China, several suppliers shut down solar-grade polysilicon production or announced the exit from the sector, including China Silicon, which had an effective production capacity of around 3,000 tonnes. Other businesses that will halt, or have halted, production include Risen Energy (12,000 tonnes per year), CSG Holding (9,000 tonnes per year), REC Solar Norway (5,000 tonnes per year) and Huanghe Hydropower (3,000 tonnes per year),

BloombergNEF expected that around 2,437,500 metric tonnes of polysilicon will be produced in 2024 based on current production plans of active players, with the five biggest players in the industry responsible for 66% of the production.